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Note: the official operational phase of the 2nd EOP PCC terminated at the end of 2022, but you can still take part in the post-operational part of the campaign

The official part of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) lasted from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022, and the last prediction submission at this phase was on 28 December 2022. We would like to thank all participants for active participation in the campaign.

We are open to continue the cooperation with participants. At the moment, the unofficial part of the campaign is underway – willing participants can still send their predictions in the same way as before. Data submitted after 2022 will not be included in the final evaluation at the end of the 2nd EOP PCC and will not be shared in an open database. However, we encourage all participants to continue to submit their predictions. Continuation of these activities will allow for additional analyses, such as using the new IERS EOP 20 C04 series in prediction evaluation.

We would like to distinguish predictions based on EOP 14 C04 data from those based on new EOP 20 C04 series. Therefore, we ask you to keep the same file names as before for predictions connected with previous C04. For predictions based on new 20 C04 data, please add suffix “_2020” to the file names, e.g. “eoppcc_999_59976_2020” or “eoppcc_999_59976_p_2020”. The content of the files, format and units are not changed.

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Welcome on the page of 2nd Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

Earth orientation parameters (EOP) comprising of nutation offsets, pole coordinates, and dUT1 represent a critically needed link between the terrestrial and the celestial reference frame. Predictions of EOP are important for a number of operational activities including navigation of deep-space satellite missions, the pointing of astronomical instruments, or satellite-based positioning on Earth. Various agencies and institutions worldwide therefore maintain capacities to rapidly process space geodetic observations to obtain estimates for the Earth orientation parameters with short latencies as a basis for the subsequent prediction. Whereas many users require predictions for only a few days into the future, IERS routinely publishes predictions for up to 1 year ahead within its Bulletin A.

Between 2006 and 2008, the first EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC; Kalarus et al., 2010) provided a very comprehensive assessment of the capabilities of different EOP prediction methods in an operational setting. Since that time, much progress has been made in terms of improved geodetic data processing, reduced VLBI latency, and routine availability of model-based forecasts of effective angular momentum functions for atmosphere, oceans, and the terrestrial hydrosphere.

In light of those developments, a re-assessment of the various EOP prediction capabilities will be pursued in the frame of the 2nd Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC).

Starting in 2021, the 2nd EOP PCC is being performed under the auspices of the IERS. The dedicated IERS Working Group on 2nd EOP PCC has been established.

2nd EOP PCC is open to all. Predictions of each EOP (xP, yP pole coordinates, UT1-UTC universal time, ΔLOD length of day, dX, dY or dψ, dε, precession–nutation residuals) are welcome. New types of prediction methods might enter at any time during the course of the campaign.

Valid predictions of all kind of EOP will be collected once per week in an operational setting. The accuracy and reliability of different prediction methods will be only evaluated later when geodetic observations of those EOP are eventually available.

The office of the campaign will be maintained by the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences (CBK PAN) in Warsaw (Poland). The campaign is expected to run until 2023.

Kalarus, M., Schuh, H., Kosek, W., Akyilmaz, O., Bizouard, C., Gambis, D., Gross, R., Jovanović, B., Kumakshev, S., Kutterer, H., Mendes Cerveira, P. J., Pasynok, S., & Zotov, L. (2010). Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign. Journal of Geodesy, 84(10), 587–596, doi: 10.1007/s00190-010-0387-1