Latest news
- Conclusion of the 2nd EOP PCC and EOP PML Campaigns
- Invitation to participate in the 2nd EOP PCC Workshop No. 3
- Launch of an internal sub-campaign within the 2nd EOP PCC dedicated to ML-based approaches
Welcome on the page of 2nd Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC)
Earth orientation parameters (EOP) comprising of nutation offsets, pole coordinates, and dUT1 represent a critically needed link between the terrestrial and the celestial reference frame. Predictions of EOP are important for a number of operational activities including navigation of deep-space satellite missions, the pointing of astronomical instruments, or satellite-based positioning on Earth. Various agencies and institutions worldwide therefore maintain capacities to rapidly process space geodetic observations to obtain estimates for the Earth orientation parameters with short latencies as a basis for the subsequent prediction. Whereas many users require predictions for only a few days into the future, IERS routinely publishes predictions for up to 1 year ahead within its Bulletin A.
Between 2006 and 2008, the first EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC; Kalarus et al., 2010) provided a very comprehensive assessment of the capabilities of different EOP prediction methods in an operational setting. Since that time, much progress has been made in terms of improved geodetic data processing, reduced VLBI latency, and routine availability of model-based forecasts of effective angular momentum functions for atmosphere, oceans, and the terrestrial hydrosphere.
In light of these developments, a re-assessment of the performance of various EOP prediction methods was undertaken within the framework of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC). Launched in 2021, the 2ndd EOP PCC has been conducted under the auspices of the IERS. To support the campaign, a dedicated IERS Working Group on the 2nd EOP PCC was established.
Valid predictions for all EOP components have been collected on a weekly basis in an operational setting. The accuracy and reliability of the different prediction methods were evaluated only after geodetic observations of the corresponding EOP became available.
The campaign office was hosted by the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences (CBK PAN) in Warsaw, Poland. The operational phase of the campaign ran from September 2021 to December 2022, followed by a post-operational phase that ended in June 2026. Additionally, a sub-campaign dedicated to machine-learning-based prediction approaches was conducted from November 2024 to June 2026.
Papers with 2nd EOP PCC results:
Śliwińska, J., Kur, T., Wińska, M., Nastula, J., Dobslaw, H., & Partyka, A. (2022). Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC): Overview. Artificial Satellites, 57(S1), 237–253. doi:10.2478/arsa-2022-0021
Kur, T., Dobslaw, H., Śliwińska, J., Nastula, J., Wińska, M., & Partyka, A. (2022). Evaluation of selected short-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD collected in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign. Earth, Planets and Space, 74, 191. doi:10.1186/s40623-022-01753-9
Kur, T., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Wińska, M., Dobslaw, H., Nastula, J., Partyka, A., et al. (2024). Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign. Earth and Space Science, 11(11). doi:10.1029/2023EA003278
Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Kur, T., Wińska, M., Dobslaw, H., Nastula, J., Partyka, A., et al. (2024). Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign. Journal of Geodesy, 98, 22. doi:10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7
Wińska, M., Kur, T., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Nastula, J., Dobslaw, H., Partyka, A., et al. (2024). Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC). Earth, Planets and Space, 76, 100. doi:10.1186/s40623-024-02042-3
Partyka, A., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Dobslaw, H., Nastula, J., & Wińska, M. (2025). Impact of reference EOP time series on EOP prediction evaluation. Earth, Planets and Space, 77, 102. doi:10.1186/s40623-025-02201-0
Partyka, A., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Nastula, J., Wińska, M., & Michalczak, M. (2026). The impact of reference series selection when evaluating celestial pole offset predictions. Earth, Planets and Space, 78(1), 128. doi:10.1186/s40623-026-02443-6
